You can always rely on Ambrose Evans Pritchard of the UK's Daily Telegraph for some clarity of thought, even if he can be alarmingly pessimistic sometimes. Here he is on the Euro Crisis, unfolding as we speak.
"In a nutshell, unless the ECB is willing to step in – I mean really step in, not piss in the wind – until such a time as the revamped EFSF bail-out is ratified by all parliaments and is ready to take the baton (say November), and unless the EFSF itself is quadrupled in size and given to a €2 trillion mandate without all the German-imposed ifs and buts, then the game is up.
If the EU authorities refuse to do this, it is best for everybody that is recognized immediately and that arrangements are made for the orderly break-up of monetary union … not next year, or next month, but next week."
Really not a nice concept, especially as trying to revoke a huge treaty like monetary union on an ad hoc basis would not be easy. But one way or another, the banks are going to have liquidity freezes, and runs on consumer banking, unless some kind of resolution is apparent. If you are in Greece, do you take out all the Euros you can, to avoid being in the Drachma again, or as a German do you drop the Euros in your account for something else like the Swiss Franc, to preserve value until the new DM comes in? Either way, massive flows build up quickly into self-fulfilling prophecies.
Keep watching. Don't blink.
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