With the recent travils of Greece and the PIIGS in the Eurozone, it has been easy to find people who shout "Fire! Fire!" More telling is when the sober-minded and thoughtful commentators start to question the future of the Euro. One of those is the FT's Wolfgang Munchau, who has this to say about Greece having to go to the IMF for emergency financing, and not getting it from fellow Eurozone members: (emphasis mine.)
"But either outcome will mark the beginning of the end of Europe’s economic and monetary union as we know it. This is the true historical significance of Ms Merkel’s decision.
While Greece faces the most acute difficulties, it is not the only member in trouble. There are at least four – Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland – that are probably not in a position to maintain a monetary union with Germany under current policies indefinitely. There may be several more, where the problems are not yet quite so evident. In the presence of extreme current account imbalances and a lack of bail-out or fiscal redistribution mechanisms, a monetary union among such a diverse group of countries is probably not sustainable."
Except, as I have written here, the Euro is roach motel, you can get in, but there is currently no way to get out, without the same kind of effort that it took to covert to the Euro, but under the aegis of an economic collapse.
Is anyone planning for these kinds of contingencies? I wonder if SAP has anyone looking, even speculatively, at this kind of future potential issue? (I know of no-one, but then I have not asked.)