Cardboard Spaceship

Harpy Noo Ear!!!

Hello Earthlings Everywhere.

Been on holiday for the last couple of weeks, first week was nursing Mrs Spaceship who fell ill to some dread disease, despite all being vaccinated for flu, then we had a Xmas in Scotland, which was good, as we got round all the parents, and all the siblings, and so a huge success all round.  Got back yesterday, and having a quiet time, having had six full family Xmas occasions this year, and so on. 

More anon, but have a great 2009 wherever you are. 

UK, in the light of Karl Marx, May Yet Nationalise the Banks...

Well, an editorial here in the Telegraph has mentioned that the government may yet nationalise the whole banking system, and not in some kind of random nutcase kind of way, but as a rational view as to what might the next steps be.

Except, until now, all countries have been too big to fail, but maybe they aren't.  Ecuador, Argentina, etc.  Iceland, and others.

Money is only money if you believe in it. 

Meh. Basement time again.

Madoff

Well, the oft quoted Warren Buffet saying, "you can only tell who's been skinny dipping when the tide goes out," has given us a really full frontal nude in the form of Madoff Securities little escapade, which was been exposed by none other than the man himself as a 50 billion dollar Ponzi scheme. 

The fact that he was, amongst other things, one time chariman of the Nasdaq will not give any issues about the notion of self regulation, and light touch capitalism.  Still it's interesting to see how quick things get real when the rich get hurt as opposed to governments or the poor. 

Coming Hyperinflation

All the talk right now is about deflation, but what about the massive, massive expansion in the money supply?

If you want the counter-argument, go here, to read William Engdahl's view on where all this is going.  I am persuaded by a lot of what he is saving.  Some early evidence is already starting to appear as to a future dollar problem.  As soon as the Government gets "helping", it only goes one way. 

Stranglers at their Best...

Here is a music videoa that really works at a lot of levels.  Peter Cook, down on his luck, one has to imagine, presenting, what we would call now, a post punk ironic commentator role, but which I would have defended to my imaginary end, or at least until lunchbreak, presenting those ultimate punk career musicians, the Stranglers on Revolver in the 1970's.

Enjoy.  And remember to hum Curfew on the riot barracades in the in the next few weeks... 

Man with "U" Grade in "A" Level Economics Notices Economic Collapse.

Jeremy Clarkson, who writes, well rants rather about cars, and this and that, has suddenly woken up and noticed that the world economy has collapsed.  Which as he points out involves him trying to get the last Turkish Delight in Chipping Norton Post Office with a Beretta shotgun.   It also gives him a chance to perform his other favourite pastime of slagging off anything that Vauxhall, and hence GM, has ever made, but he goes gently, because kicking cripples in the street is not funny, even to him. 

He might be a ranter, but he is a smart end of the "everyman" spectrum, and if he's noticed, then the game is nearly upon us. 

Afghanistan - A Brief History

Don't normally do Geopolitics, but looking at the situation in Afghanistan, where the US and other forces are evidently failing in their objectives, and are now hanging on in a largely hostile country with a very dubious supply chain, what didn't the proposers of the invasion understand?

Noted tough and successful armies:

Alexander the Great
British Empire under Queen Victoria
Soviet Russian Army

What do they all have in common?  None of them could take and hold Afghanistan. 

That's as basic as not fighting a winter war in Russia to even the most casual observer of military history. 

Meh. 

CDS Monster Rearing its Head Again?

Well, could be an interesting Xmas here in Yoorp if this one is on the money.

"We hear from a very well placed Buy Side investor with extensive business interests in the US and EU that three primary banking institutions in Europe, two French and one German, have such significant CDS exposure and other problems that they cannot even begin to fund the payouts anticipated over the next quarter. "

The grim reminder of the thirties is the fact that Wall Street crash did not cause the Great Depression in and of itself, it was the subsequent failure of the Austrian bank Creditanstalt. that finally dealt the telling blow to the international monetary system at the time, and also had no small impact on the subsequent rise of the Nazis in Austria.  (Oh Joy.)   

Meanwhile AIG, holder of lots of these toxic little bombs has moved its taxpayer funded recovery from 83 billion to a rather eye watering 151 billion, and continues to leak cash like a machine gunned water tank.  

And all the focus is on deflation.  Deflation, yes, for the short term, but when the impact of the printing presses being run day and night hits the streets, we're going straight to hyperinflationary Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe territory.  Maybe I am missing something, but is the USA or anyone for that matter good for the insane sums of money being printed right now? 

Paris for Lunch

Got up early this morning, and hopped on TGV for Paris. The TGV from Geneva goes to the Gare de Lyon. We (My SAP colleagues and I) had arranged to meet up in the "Train Bleu" which is at main entrance to the station. It's done an original fin-de-siecle style, now faded by a century or more of use. Beautiful place in an otherwise rather functional train station. If you find yourself there, go and see it, it is worth the detour.

Meeting with a French bank, as you might imagine. Finance Director could not be there, as intended, as he had been called in by the French Minister of Finance to discuss the financial crisis, which is a dashed good excuse I would say.

I presented my SAP pitch, which normally would cause me little or no anguish, as I know it pretty well by now, except for the additional challenge that I was presenting to Parisians in French.

I have learnt my French in Mauritius as a boy (and most of that as actually Creole.), in Scotland as a dead language (Nobody I knew spoke it...) and then in Switzerland.

Then once that was good enough, my Belgian colleagues started getting me to present in French, which was tolerated as in Benelux many people speak the language as a second language, and anyway, most technical words are franglais like "le cashflow".

This not the case in Paris. The correct words are "truly" French, and given the very high educational standards in France, getting it wrong is not considered impressive...

To give an analogy, someone who learnt English in Papua New Guinea, then did a correpondence course to a minimum level, then learnt to speak in Scotland, and picked up his technical vocabulary in New Zealand, might also be a bit nervous presenting to the senior management of a old school tie English bank.

Seemed to go OK in the end, which is nice, as three hours of dying on my arse and being sneered at would have ruined my whole afternoon. Also gives me the kind of vocabulary that I would not pick up in casual conversation.

So now I am on the train back to Geneva, looking forward to a chill out weekend.

Financial news continues to be uniformly dreadful, so I might avoid reading the Internet, and walk the dog instead. Much more Zen...