Cardboard Spaceship

Oh, the Horror...

People often comment on me living in Switzerland, and how it must be nice, but, well, rather dull. 

Not one bit of it, we live in daily peril here in this country, I tell you. 

Russia and the New World Currency

Another very interesting shot in the diplomatic joust between America and its creditors.  Dmitri Medvedev, President of Russia showed off a coin from the new world currency, which he had in his pocket, and which was given to each of the attending heads of state at the G8. 

PR stunt maybe, but one that should have the debt leaden USA trembling like a shitting dog at the moment. 

Whatever else he did though, he did maintain a noble Rusiian tradition by looking like this, at the walkabout, which if you ask me looks more than a little tired and emotional, as Private Eye would say.   (Via the Exile.)

World Climate and Cap and Trade

Interesting opinion piece here about the cap and trade.  If the case for climate change is not watertight, no pun intended, then this could be a very wrong move.  It would seem that there is significant doubt in the real world about whether the computer jockeys have the right models. 

I think that there is a case for having other sources of energy, not least of all because oil, coal and gas are finite, and so we so need to have something more sustainable. 

Ronald Does a Bunk to Geneva

There goes the neighbourhood.  Ronald MacDonald and all his chums, or at least the ones not making minimum wage serving ground up cow's udders are moving to be in Spaceshipland. 

I honestly have no clue where they are going to put all these people. 

Great Tagline

Had Philip Hogden drop a longish comment on my view about the fact that the potential collapse of the Californian economy is not a brand issue.  Obviously, if someone takes the time and courtesy to do that, you want to know more about them.  I went to his site, and the reason I am posting this is because of the tagline on the site, which is to do with international tax advice.

"International tax is complicated. We’re not."

Heh.  That gets my vote as the only financial services slogan I have seen that struck a chord for a long time. 

World's Eight Largest Brand Collapses According to Clueless Shill

Sometimes in the midst of the current drama we see evidence of people (the majority of the population usually,) who have failed to grasp the extent of the problem. 

"the long-term brand and the image are hurt for good."

What is this useless bastard (crisis communications consultant Chris Lehane) talking about?  Crunchy frogs found in a Burger King box?  Accidental inclusion of glass shards in toilet tissue supply? 

Actually, he is talking about the collapse of California, the world's eight largest economy. 

Gives me itchy fists just reading bullshit like that. 

UK and the Bond Vigilantes

Bloody Hell, Harry! as Ron Weasley would say to Harry Potter.

UK GDP has contracted 2.4%, the fastest rate for more than half a century, for an aggregate fall of activity of 4.9% compared with Q1 2008, itself the largest on record.

Still, Gordy and Mandy to the rescue, as they will not cut public spending in a recession, even one of their own making.  The OECD and others think that maybe they should think about it a bit harder. 

In the least surprising development since the Garden of Eden, foreigners are shunning the UK's debt.  Which is a bit of a self-fulfilling cycle.   Because as the interest rates that are paid on bonds are raised, to make them more attractive to investors, then the price of the existing bonds goes down.  (If that sounds daft, it's because you don't understand net present value.) 

 So, if you think that the bonds are going to go down in value, you won't buy them.  So, the government gets a kind of debt strike by foreign investors.  It's dangerous waters, and the bond holders who drive this spiral are called the bond vigilantes. 

Going to be an interesting ride in the UK for the next couple of years. 

FDR Style Bank Holiday as Basel Says Bank Still Toxic?

I have this one under "tin foil hat," but I'm going to blog it because if he's right, this is news.  He in this case is Harry Schultz, of the eponymous Harry Schultz Letter.  (He really sweated on naming that one...) 

Banks going to be closed in a repeat of FDR's bank holiday. 

"In its current issue, HSL reports rumors that "Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days."

Yes, yes, it's paranoid. But paranoids have enemies -- and the Crash of 2008 really did happen.

HSL's suspicion: "Another FDR-style 'bank holiday' of indefinite length, perhaps soon, to let the insiders sort out the bank mess, which (despite their rosy propaganda campaign) is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already underway. It could also lead to a formal U.S. dollar devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (and then confiscating it)."

Might be just be more goldbug paranoia, but in a sign of the times, I actually thought about it for a few minutes. 

Why?  Well, this report is about as interesting as official dry document can be, coming as it does from the BIS; the central banker's central bank.  (And the cause of no small amount of tin foil nuttery and New World Order suspicions in its own right.)  If you just need the executive summary, this is a good overview from the Guardian. 

This is part of a long annual report that does a good job of analysing the crisis, even if it is a bit rich that the BIS was at least partly in the firing line for being responsible.  

"Over the past few years, this essential and complex system of finance has
been critically damaged. Evidence of serious trouble emerged when banks
became less willing to lend to each other, because they were no longer sure
how to value the assets held and the promises made – both their own and
those of potential borrowers. For a time, central bank lending was able to fill
the gap. But, as described in Chapter II, from August 2007 the stress in the
financial system increased in waves. By March 2008, Bear Stearns had to be
rescued; six months later, on 15 September, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt;
and by the end of September, the global financial system itself was on the
verge of collapse.

The financial system is based on trust, and in the wake of the Lehman
failure that trust was lost. Ordinary people had placed their confidence in those
who ran and monitored the financial system, only to discover that the system
could fail anyway. The crisis shattered lenders’ trust that a loan previously
thought to be of high quality was likely to be repaid, and it dissolved the
confidence of investors in the long-term safety of their investments. As the
difficult and time-consuming task of cleaning up institutions’ balance sheets
went on, property rights that are normally taken for granted were being
questioned; and so financial institutions – normally run, at least in part, by
traders and loan officers together with the risk managers who try to control
them – were placed in the hands of lawyers. Unfortunately, once lost, trust is
regained only slowly. And before trust can be fully regained, the financial
system will have to be rebuilt.

The modern financial system is immensely complex – possibly too complex
for any one person to really understand it. Interconnections create systemic
risks that are extraordinarily difficult to figure out. The fact that things
apparently worked so well (up until the time that they did not) gave everyone
a false sense of comfort. After all, when things are going well, why rock the
boat? But this understandable complacency, born out of booms that make
everyone better off, sows the seeds of collapse. Hence, as we attempt to
explain and fix what has failed, it is essential to keep in mind that the new
financial system must take better account of our inherently limited ability to
understand complex processes and to foresee their potential for failure."

"And before trust can be fully regained, the financial system will have to be rebuilt."

It's scrunchy scrunchy time for tin foil hat fans everywhere. 

Finally, a Coherent Explanation for Crop Circles

Crop Circles can be beautiful, and whilst I would love to think that aliens would like to spend the insane amount of energy to cross between the stars to do the equivalent of interstaller finger painting, the truth is as every so much more prosaic.

Stoned up Wallabies appear to be the true cause, so Reg Presley can now go back to singing Wild Thing in the local pub.

Slovenia - Great Town if You Can Spell It

Had a trip to Slovenia this week, to the capital, the slightly hard to spell Ljubljana.  Very nice town in a small adrift section of the former Yugoslavia.  Good place to spent a weekend, as the town is small, and well served with restaurants, and the local scenery is nice.  (No more than a weekend, it is small.) 

Here is the main drag down the river, lined on both sides with bustling restaurants, that seemed to have good food. 

I walked down here looking around for an eating place for later, as I went towards the high point of the town, the castle.  The climb was a challenge, because it was 32 or so degrees, and very high humidity, as there was a thunderstorm coming.  The chaps in the window here are in a high state of undress, due to that heat. 

Got to the Castle, which rather than being the closed mausoleum to past conflicts that I expected, has been renovated, and turned into quite a lively arts venue.  Here is the outside.

I had a wander along the walls fo the castle looking out over the town and surrounding scenery, which was quite dramatic given the gathering storm.

Here are a bunch of Slovenians enjoying what could have been a political rally, a poetry event, or just about anything really, as it was all in Slovenian, naturally enough.

But I did find a source of entertainment and refreshment in the form of a local beer.  Certainly quenched the parts that the heat and climb had made dry. 

So after a happy half hour watching this enigmatic gathering, and watching small children terrifying the local pigeons, I wandered back to the centre, but this time I tackled it more directly via a rather dizzying staircase wedged between the town's rather charming houses. 

Could almost be Germany, but just to make sure you are not fooled, there is one communist era monstrosity to make sure that you keep on your toes.  This is the National Ljubljana Bank HQ, and as you can see it subscribes to the Brutalist school of architecture.  (Interesting enough it was also the place where I first saw someone riding a Segway, about four or five years ago.)

So, having made it back, I continued to wander up and down the river cafes, and I noticed that the Slovenians are not big graffitti and tag merchants,. but that they did have some well done examples.  In fact the whole town gives off a rather arts and crafts feel. 

Here is a sort of Banksy style effort.  The wording is translated by Google's Slovenian to English option as "Please Bombs Fall!", which strikes me that it maybe wide of the mark in this case...

Here is another example, rather more whimsical this time:

Finally, rather than Munch's "The Scream," we have Slovenia's "The Yawn".

Rather witty, compared this with the run of the mill tagging crap. 

Next day I gave a speech to a banking congress.  Went fine, except that the host, intending to be complimentary, compared my presentation style to that of John Cleese.   ("Sorry, please excuse him, he comes from Barcelona.")

Only one word of warning - the taxi drivers in Slovenia are without doubt the most dangerous I have ever encountered.  Doing 120 KMH through town in a 50 zone, missing and swerving past other cars by millimetres, undertaking, and some really breath-takingly bad and risky driving.  I mentioned this to the marketing person who had set up the event, and she said:  "ah yes, we're all a bit like that."

Random.